New interceptors for Patriot air defense systems will likely first be produced in Germany or another European country where production would be safer, Reuters reported July 10, citing sources familiar with the talks.
Production capacity could be moved to Ukraine after the war, the sources said.
Establishing assembly production and bringing in the necessary contractors would take significant time, experts said.
As a result, producing Raytheon-made PAC-2 Patriot interceptors or newer PAC-3 missiles from Lockheed Martin would not quickly affect Ukraine’s air defense situation.
“The impact will be very limited in the short term,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile technology expert at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies in Oslo.
“I would be surprised if this could be achieved in less than 12 months. Most likely, the process will take significantly longer.”
Raytheon signed an agreement with European weapons manufacturer MBDA in 2024 to produce GEM-T interceptors for the PAC-2 system in Germany, Reuters reported.
The first deliveries are expected no earlier than early 2027.
Talks on producing PAC-3 missiles in Germany have not yet produced results.
Current Patriot missile production volumes are insufficient to counter Russia’s ballistic missile threat, experts said.
Russia produces at least 700 to 800 Iskander ballistic missiles and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles annually, according to expert estimates.
Given that about three Patriot missiles may be needed to intercept one ballistic target, Ukraine and its allies would need roughly 2,400 interceptors per year to match the pace of Russian production.
“Even with a licensed production facility in Ukraine, achieving that number would be very, very difficult, if not impossible,” Hoffmann said.
Poland is one of four NATO countries authorized to receive technology transfers for the production of missiles for Patriot air defense systems, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said July 9.
